“I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook,” said Lichtman. Allan Lichtman is a history professor at American University and uses a historically-based system of what he calls “keys” to predict election results ahead of time. The keys were founded on the study of every presidential election.
Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what’s called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman’s predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators and this is quite significant.
Lichtman during September conversation, outlined how President Barack Obama’s second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped the balance in Trump’s favor, even if just barely and polls showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead, and much of America (chiefly the media) failed to anticipate the wave of pro-Trump support that propelled him to victory, also few prognosticators predicted a Donald Trump victory ahead of Tuesday night but a Washington, D.C.-based professor insisted that Trump was lined up for a win – based on the idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power.”
Lichtman made another call, just after the September conversation that if Donald Trump is elected he would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence – someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.
As per Allan Lichtman, “I’m going to make another prediction. This one is not based on a system, it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable.”
He further added that, “They’d love to have Pence – an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
Lichtman had previously cleared that every election had been clearly predicted by the system and the noteworthy point is this, that his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections. Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions and also he has disregards and holds a strong contempt for prediction systems that assign a likelihood of winning.
According to Lichtman, “For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst.”
Hillary Clinton can’t be blamed for Trump’s win in the US Presidential elections. In fact, it was being decided by the larger forces that shape American Politics.
“Polls are not predictors, they are snapshots that simulate an election. They are abused and misused as predictors. Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls.”
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